An article from Forbes.

Following my recent article – Lead-Acid Batteries Are On A Path To Extinction – I received an email from Battery Council International (BCI), the trade association for lead battery manufacturers, recyclers and suppliers. Members directly provide nearly 25,000 U.S. jobs and make a $26.3 billion annual impact to the economy – and have experienced a 20% direct job growth since 2016.

They took particular exception to the headline, arguing that in contrast to my arguments, lead-acid batteries have a bright future. A key point they made in the email was that lead-acid batteries are 99% recyclable, while lithium-ion batteries are recycled at a rate below 5%.

So, I asked them if they would like to make those points in an interview. They agreed.

To summarize my view, I agree that…the recycling issue must be addressed. Certainly, if it can’t be addressed, then that would be an advantage in favor of lead-acid batteries.

However, when I look at the trajectory, I see lithium-ion batteries steadily declining in price, while the price of lead-acid batteries is relatively stagnant. I see that lead-acid batteries are losing market share — and are projected to continue losing market share to lithium-ion batteries. Given the multiple advantages, I don’t see how lead-acid can compete if lithium-ion continues its downward price trend. Indeed, it seems to me that the current trajectory is a path to extinction for lead-acid batteries.

What could change that trajectory? Several things. The cost curve could flatten at a higher price for lithium-ion batteries. Or, maybe the recycling issue can’t be resolved. Or maybe the overall market grows so fast that lithium-ion batteries can’t keep up, in which case lead-acid batteries would still be needed for many years.

I can see their point when I compare lead-acid battery use to our use of petroleum. Many people have argued that oil usage is on its way to extinction. I have argued that these projections are much too rosy, and that while oil may indeed be on that path – it’s a very long path that will last decades. Perhaps the same could be said of lead-acid batteries.

Answering the questions on BCI’s behalf is Dr. Matt Raiford, manager, Consortium for Battery Innovation, the global lead battery pre-competitive research consortium supported by BCI. Dr. Raiford earned his B. S. in chemistry from Texas A&M University and his Ph.D. in chemistry from the University of Texas, Austin. His current work is focused on improving dynamic charge acceptance and cycle life in lead batteries.

Robert. So, how do you see the competition playing out between lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries? If the cost of lithium-ion batteries continues to decline, what would drive a consumer to purchase a lead-acid battery for their application?.

A: It’s not about picking winners, or choosing between lead and lithium. Each battery technology will have an essential role to play in different applications, and the market will ultimately decide which technology best suits a particular need. The huge hike in demand for energy storage, from energy storage systems (ESS) for residential, to commercial and industrial applications, to renewable energy integration will require a wide range of batteries, each with their different strengths. For example, for energy storage, lead is a very good fit for areas where safety is a concern as evidenced by fire marshals in New York and Boston restricting the use of lithium ion batteries in residential buildings.

Robert: Where do you see the most opportunity for lead-acid batteries going forward?

A: In Telecom and Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) there is a major cost advantage tied not only to lower manufacturing cost but also the lower shipping cost (Class 9 Hazardous for lithium, lithium can’t be moved via airfreight.) Telecom and UPS batteries sustain 4G and will be integral in 5G, which will require new equipment and more infrastructure. Lead and lithium will supply this effort. Close to a billion dollars in increase between the two industries. One key note, is that while lithium will penetrate in this market, lead will be the main choice and will dominate even more in countries that are doing rapid deployment (India, part of Africa, Western China, Vietnam, etc.).

There’s also the fact that for materials sourcing, lead batteries have the advantage of being domestically sourced, which is important for both cost and national security, which is a priority for the Department of Energy (DOE).  Like petroleum and its dependence on some unfavorable partners for supply, consider that up to 70% of the global cobalt supply comes from the Republic of Congo, sometimes using child labor. Nickel, also used in lithium batteries, might become a pinch point for supply or cost. Currently, there are plenty of lithium reserves, but the vast majority of it comes from China, Chile, Argentina and Zimbabwe. Australia is also a large producer and likely the friendliest partner of the group.