Petrol 2 Wheelers have started to take a massive beating from the electric 2 wheelers. Sad part is that NONE of them wants to acknowledge it. So the beating will continue in coming years.
Most importantly… None of the ICE 2Wheeler makers have a better electric Scooter than Ather, Revolt or Ola. Meaning the established players have an inferior electric 2Wheeler in comparison to Newbies like Ather, Revolt or Ola.
Neither do these ICE 2Wheeler makers have ANY…
plan to make electric vehicles on a large scale before 2025.
Meaning they are already way behind… and by the time they scale up… the Industry would have moved up another technological curve. Ather has been testing eScooters since 10 yrs while Chetak and iQube have just started and that too because the Government forced them to make EVs. So you can imagine the time they will take to catch up!!!
IF THIS IS NOT A DISASTER?… THEN WHAT IS A DISASTER?
It is exactly the situation that Nokia & Blackberry was in… they were planning new versions of button phones and refusing to introduce touchscreen phones. We have seen it happen right through history with many top companies. One more example is Kodak’s refusal to move to digital cameras in spite of being the 1st to make a digital camera.
So, below are our Kodaks, Nokias & Blackberries… stand back and watch them fall from their heights… over the next 4yrs (2025).
Take a look at the numbers and you can see the writing on the wall.
All of them are searching for solutions in other countries. Let them search… while local companies founded by freshly graduated Engineers sell electric 2Wheelers… and laugh their way to the bank!
Bajaj Auto sales FELL by 11% selling just 361,036 instead of 404,851 sold last year.
Most of these companies are used to 10% year on year growth. So these figures are VERY bad by any account!
TVS seems to be the only one whose sales increased marginally by 6%.
Its the same story with 3Wheelers. There was a time when only Bajaj, Piaggio & Mahindra made autorickshaws in India like it was during the Licence Raj. Today there are more than 16 companies making electric 3-Wheelers in India.
Every year they are selling more 3Wheelers but end up loosing more and more of their market share!!! This is a an indication that the markets are SERIOUSLY expanding.
Bajaj Auto sales increased from 6,444 to 11,006 but market share FELL from 38% to 36%.
Piaggio sales increased from 3,701 to 3,841 but market-share FELL from 21% to 12%.
On the other hand unheard of company YC Electric DOUBLED its sales from 572 to 1,187 and its market share also INCREASED from 3.38% to 3.90%.
In a pandemic we expected established players to out perform the new players.
In both 2 Wheelers and 3 Wheelers the script is the same… it reads aloud… go Electric or go Broke!!!
Time to sell Petrol 2 Wheeler Shares?
These Petrol 2Wheeler stocks were excellent over the last decade. Investing in these companies paid back very lucratively over the years. But their lack of action to proactively introduce or embrace new technology seem to show that they are going down the wrong path.
Every few months these Petrol 2 Wheeler makers are introducing more and more petrol 2 Wheelers. They have been warned by the government to introduce flexible fuel scooters and motorcycles which can support ethanol and petrol but except for TVS none of the 2Wheeler makers are supporting that cause.
Indian Transport Minister Mr Nitin Gadkariji had repeatedly requested them from many years to use flexible fuel engines which can support both petrol and ethanol. Buy in the year 2022 the government will make it compulsory for these petrol vehicle companies (for 2wheelers & cars) to update their vehicle with flexible fuel engines.
As of now it seems that only TVS has an Ethanol bike! Wonder what the rest of the 2 wheeler makers are doing? Then they complain that government is creating hurdles for them.
These Petrol 2wheeler makers are going against a path that the Government wants them to follow. Their aim is not aligned with the aim of the Government of India and that is a very dangerous situation to be.
So maybe it is a good time to sell petrol 2Wheeler shares? Right? Or maybe it is not? You will be the one to make that call.
Checkout Rushlane data on:
2. Honda data
5. TVS data
6. Bajaj data
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